IPCC report 6th Assessment out today- initial headlines

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=pmd_7862a5a917e92ac692375d1a7c176dc1399e86c4-1628502438-0-gqNtZGzNAeKjcnBszQgi

Red Code for Humanity according to the United Nations General Secretary today

Our planet is warming and it is warming quickly with increasing consequences everywhere. (IPCC 9th August 2021)

The scenarios are really, really devastating -if we do nothing we are on course for 5.7 degrees of warming- hotter than the human body can stand- it would be unlikely we would survive- we simply have to act for humans to remain on the planet.

This is a complete and utter disaster- and a wake up call-It is entirely humans fault- we should all be ashamed and we should all do something about it-and fast- for a start – we should stop electing politicians who care more about their careers- than about keeping the planets life alive. Next time you vote- really think about it. Its a huge responsibility. Take it seriously.

A.2.1 In 2019, atmospheric CO2 concentrations were higher than at any time in at least 2 million years (high confidence), and concentrations of CH4 and N2O were higher than at any time in at least 800,000 years (very high confidence).

Since 1750, increases in CO2 (47%) and CH4 (156%) concentrations far exceed, and increases in N2O (23%) are similar to, the natural multi–millennial changes between glacial and interglacial periods over at least the past 800,000 years (very high confidence).
{2.2, 5.1, TS.2.2}

Headline Statements 6th Assessment

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Headline_Statements.pdf

A.2.2 Global surface temperature has increased faster since 1970 than in any other 50–year period over at least the last 2000 years (high confidence). Temperatures during the most recent decade (2011–2020) exceed
those of the most recent multi–century warm period, around 6500 years ago13 [0.2°C to 1°C relative to 1850–1900] (medium confidence). Prior to that, the next most recent warm period was about 125,000 years ago
when the multi–century temperature [0.5°C to 1.5°C relative to 1850–1900] overlaps the observations of the most recent decade (medium confidence).

A.2.3 In 2011–2020, annual average Arctic sea ice area reached its lowest level since at least 1850 (high confidence). Late summer Arctic sea ice area was smaller than at any time in at least the past 1000 years
(medium confidence). The global nature of glacier retreat, with almost all of the world’s glaciers retreating synchronously, since the 1950s is unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years (medium confidence).
{2.3, TS.2.5}

A.2.4 Global mean sea level has risen faster since 1900 than over any preceding century in at least the last 3000 years (high confidence). The global ocean has warmed faster over the past century than since the end of
the last deglacial transition (around 11,000 years ago) (medium confidence). A long–term increase in surface open ocean pH occurred over the past 50 million years (high confidence), and surface open ocean pH as low
as recent decades is unusual in the last 2 million years (medium confidence).
{2.3, TS.2.4, Box TS.4}

Heating of the climate system has caused global mean sea level rise through ice loss on land and
thermal expansion from ocean warming. Thermal expansion explained 50% of sea level rise during 1971–2018, while ice loss from glaciers contributed 22%, ice sheets 20% and changes in land water storage 8%.
The rate of ice sheet loss increased by a factor of four between 1992–1999 and 2010–2019. Together, ice sheet and glacier mass loss were the dominant contributors to global mean sea level rise during 2006–2018.
(high confidence)

B.1.1 Compared to 1850–1900, global surface temperature averaged over 2081–2100 is very likely to be higher by 1.0°C to 1.8°C under the very low GHG emissions scenario considered (SSP1–1.9), by 2.1°C to 3.5°C in the intermediate scenario (SSP2–4.5) and by 3.3°C to 5.7°C under the very high GHG emissions
scenario (SSP5–8.5)24. The last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C higher than 1850–1900 was over 3 million years ago (medium confidence).

IPCC scenarios -painted in 9th August 2021 6th Assesment -!

There is an acceleration. according to Mark Howden Vice Chair IPCC.We are not seeing any surprises with the science. It confirms previous reports.The latest IPCC 6th Assessment Report says global warming is likely to increase to 1.5 degrees by 2030, bringing more heatwaves, droughts and flooding.

Climate change is now rapid

“It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred.”

The scale of recent changes across the climate system as a whole and the present state of many aspects of the climate system are unprecedented over many centuries to many thousands of years.” IPCC 2021.

“Unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to close to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach.”

The ocean and ice sheets is the place on Earth most at risk of irreversible change.

Many changes due to past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to millennia, especially changes in the ocean, ice sheets and global sea level.

Based on multiple lines of evidence, upper ocean stratification (virtually certain), ocean acidification (virtually certain) and ocean deoxygenation (high confidence) will continue to increase in the 21st century, at rates dependent on future emissions. Changes are irreversible on centennial to millennial time scales in global ocean temperature (very high confidence), deep ocean acidification (very high confidence) and deoxygenation (medium confidence).

Mountain and polar glaciers are committed to continue melting for decades or centuries (very high confidence). Loss of permafrost carbon following permafrost thaw is irreversible at centennial timescales (high confidence). Continued ice loss over the 21st century is virtually certain for the Greenland Ice Sheet and likely for the Antarctic Ice Sheet. There is high confidence that total ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet will increase with cumulative emissions. There is limited evidence for low-likelihood, high-impact outcomes (resulting from ice sheet instability processes characterized by deep uncertainty and in some cases involving tipping points) that would strongly increase ice loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet for centuries under high GHG emissions scenarios.

There is a near-linear relationship between cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the global warming they cause.